Is Thailand’s Two-Prime Minister Scenario Necessary For Political Stability?
Is Thailand’s Two-Prime Minister Scenario Necessary For Political Stability?
Speculation is rife from the day that ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra was released on parole that soon Thailand would have two Prime Ministers instead of one. Some went so far as to speculate that Thaksin is the real power behind the chair with PM Sretha Thavisin as just the front man.
Are these speculations baseless or have elements of truth in them?
It may sound bizarre to many of those who are not well versed in Thai politics but in actuality, it is the norm. The Prime Minister of Thailand, if not a veteran politician, has no hope of navigating through the intricacies of the political system.
PM Sretha, although an accomplished businessman, needs to rely on the ‘Baramee’ of Thaksin. The Thai word is hard to explain, but if someone has ‘Baramee’ that means that person has a combination of popularity, power, influence and goodwill which has been accumulated through earning and building it over the years.
During General Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s administration, General Prawit Wongsuwan, a longtime ally of Prayuth and part of the military junta, that ruled Thailand following Prayuth’s 2014 coup and ouster of an elected government, was known as a kingmaker behind the scenes.
As Prime Minister, Prayuth has often displayed open disdain towards politicians and elected MPs and has stayed aloof from politics, including party politics.
Like Prayuth, Prawit was a former chief of the army and both served in the elite Queen’s Guard but unlike Prayuth, he was deeply immersed in politics and wielded tremendous influence behind the scenes.
The Palang Pracharath party was born with the sole objective of prolonging the post 2014 Prayuth-led military regime and Prawit had had to play the power-broker to unite the disparate factions within the Palang Pracharath party ,while at the same time, Prawit wielded influence with the business and wealthy elite of Thailand.
Prawit had the ‘Baramee’ to perform well.
Prayuth was free to run the country while Prawit was the behind the scenes man smoothing out potential conflicts and distributing benefits.
The Prayuth-Prawit duo was necessary to keep Palang Pracharath party and Prayuth in power.
Today, PM Sretha Thavisin and ex PM Thaksin Shinawatra find themselves in a similar position.
In September 2023, Pheu Thai formed a coalition government with parties who supported the military.
This could not in any stretch of imagination be an easy coalition to manage.
It is the same military that overthrew the Pheu Thai government in 2014 and for the military regime, Thaksin and his Pheu Thai have been their number one enemy, having spent years trying to keep Thaksin and his party out of power.
The only person who can walk this tightrope is Thaksin, who has the ‘Baramee’ to make sure all feathers remain unruffled and the ‘cake’ is divided satisfactorily to every one involved.
This leaves Sretha free to concentrate on getting Thailand’s economy back on track while Thaksin pulls the strings behind the scenes to make sure the coalition government lasts its four year term.
