Move Forward Party At Crossroads: Looking For A New Way Forward?
Recently, the Constitutional court ruled that the Move Forward Party’s campaign to amend Article 112, violated the charter and amounted to an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
Since then, Theerayut Suwankesorn, the lawyer who petitioned the Constitutional Court to block Move Forward Party’s campaign to amend sec 112 has asked the Election Commission (EC) to seek a Constitutional Court order to dissolve the MFP party based on the ruling.
Furthermore, activists have filed a petition seeking life bans of 44MPS from the Move Forward party for alleged serious breaches of ethics when they signed in support of a bill to amend Sect 112.
It’s clear that the ruling has presented a predicament to the Move Forward Party: to continue with it’s flagship agenda or pivot to a more toned down one.
There is no question that the Move Forward Party is now a party in a crisis of identity and rumors are rife that party members are not in agreement on what course of action to pursue next.
If the Move Forward Party decides to pursue the amendment of Sec 112 agenda albeit within the limits set by the Constitutional Court, the big question is, is it still beneficial for the party to do so in the long run?
The Move Forward Party’s ideology is based on reforms, believing that the political and economic structure of the country needs to be reformed from the foundation itself before the country can progress. Their ideology includes reforming the monarchy and the political system, reducing the power of the military by rewriting the country’s constitution and ending conscription.
The Move Forward Party may have the impression that the reform of sec 112 was a key part of the campaign that helped them sweep 40% of popular votes in the general election last May beating the Pheu Thai party, which has won every election since 2001.
But is that really true? Is the Move Forward Party misreading the election results?
Did all 14 million people who voted for the Move Forward Party voted for the party’s stance on amendment of Sec 112 or for the party who people believed would bring change to their wellbeing and economic progress in the backdrop of a dismal performance by the earlier administration?
The election results can also lead to a conclusion that majority of people voted for economic policies that would improve their financial status. During the elections, the economic policies of three parties, Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai stood out. Move Forward Party’s policy of 3,000 Thb monthly allowance for the elderly, increase of daily minimum wage to 450 Thb , legalizing casinos and online betting run by the state, reducing cost of living and doing away with conscription. It’s to be noted that while canvassing for votes, candidates from Move Forward Party were quite muted on reforms, especially on the amendment of Sec 112. The Pheu Thai Party campaigned most notably on Soft Power, Digital Wallet Scheme and increased minimum wages. Perhaps if Pheu Thai’s proposed policies were easier to understand or communicated better to the public at that point, the party would have fared better. Till today, many still haven’t understood the concept of the Digital Wallet Scheme or Soft Power movement fully. However, what propelled Pheu Thai to being a close runner up to Move Forward Party, in the election results, is their undeniable, proven record of turning the country around economically. As for Bhumjaithai, their journey is truly exceptional. Despite being part of the earlier pro-military administration, Bhumjaithai managed to secure 70 seats, up from 50 during the 2019 elections. Their legislation of cannabis gave rise to many businesses and alternate sources of income, again driving home the huge possibility that many voted for a better economy.
Looking at the bigger picture in extremes, if an assumption is made that 14 million people voted for the amendment of sec 112 then that leaves 25 million of voters who were opposed to radical reforms.
With the limit set on how Move Forward Party can proceed with their push to amend Sec 112 and with the increasingly invisible and shadowy “demon” of military influence on politics, it’s hard to see how the Move Forward Party will achieve the landslide they are aiming for and fare well in their next election based on their ideology of radical reforms.
While the court has ruled as such, pursuing radical reforms may keep MFP in the spotlight and media space but is the party in danger of sliding towards being a ‘Rebellious & Divisive’ party rather than a ‘Progressive & Constructive’ party?
Take the recent case of Tawan and the royal motorcade of Princess Sirindhorn. A known activist, Tantawan Tawan Tuatulanon and a colleague honked at a motorcade carrying the much loved and revered Princess Sirindhorn and shared the incident on social media, where the video showed Tawan arguing with the police.
After the incident, Tawan and other activists from the Thalu Wang Group an anti- monarchy group, proceeded to conduct a poll about royal motorcades at Siam BTS station, when a group called ‘Thai People Protecting The Monarchy’ also turned up at the scene, which then ended in a brawl between the two groups.
A red line has been crossed in the sentiments of the Thai public and people took to social media and even gatherings, wearing purple clothes, the color of her birthday, across the country to show support for their beloved Princess Sirindhorn.
Move Forward Party has denied all allegations that they were in anyway behind the actions of ‘Tawan’ and the Thalu Wang Group but have not been able to shake off the perception that their anti-monarchy philosophy are aligned with the activists.
The Move Forward Party has been increasingly criticized and accused for using the young to further their agenda, ruining their lives when they end up on the wrong side of the law or in jail and all the while filling their heads with radical views. Whether these accusations hold any water or not is to be debated but the optics does not look good.
It can be argued that the Move Forward Party can try to duplicate their earlier winning strategy from 2019 to 2023, when they shot to fame and stayed in the spotlight due to their calls for radical reforms supported by mobs of youngsters. However, during the run up to the 2023’s election, Move Forward Party campaigned on progressive economic reforms rather than on hardcore radical reforms. Most will remember Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the party then, rallying around a 3,000 Thb monthly allowance for the elderly when he said “what sort of country is this where the elderly can afford only one egg a day?” After the Move Forward Party’s unexpected win, the first policies that the party disowned was the 3,000 Thb monthly allowance along with the increase in minimum wage. People were relieved though that the memorandum signed by the 8- party coalition did not contain amendment of sec. 112. Pita, as the leader of the winning party was elected as their prime ministerial candidate by the coalition parties.
The 2023’s election will always be remembered as the time when Pheu Thai betrayed Move Forward Party and joined hands with the parties from the earlier administration to form a Pheu Thai led government.
In actuality, Move Forward Party let the 8-party coalition down from the moment Pita did not honor their signed memorandum and placed his own party's agenda of amending sec 112 as the higher priority, by refusing to back down from it.
The rest is history with Move Forward Party back in Opposition today.
To go down the same path of history may not serve the Move Forward Party well as the risks of being seen as a party that is ‘divisive’ is high and circumstances have changed. The next elections will be fought focussed on a multi party system and not divided by pro-democracy and pro-establishment ideologies. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties will likely retain or even increase their vote base if the government is able to deliver on economic performance while Move Forward Party is unlikely to be able to swing extreme conservatives to their side, therefore, a landslide scenario seems unlikely. With radical reforms still on their agenda it would be difficult for other parties to form a coalition with Move Forward Party and the party might find itself in Opposition once again.
Is it not better if Move Forward Party pivots towards fulfilling people’s expectations of being a progressive and constructive party that builds on the foundation of our country instead of holding it back with divisiveness and conflicts?
Many are waiting to see what a grown up version of Move Forward Party would look like, something for the party to think about as they search for a new way forward.
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